"always an apprentice"

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Ultimate Forecast

This is a permanent post so it will always be at the top of the WordPress page.

THE MOST RECENT POST IS IMMEDIATELY UNDER THIS ONE.

This is what I expect to be my Final Forecast for the LTTO on USDCHF, according to its 3rd update, published in April 2012.

I’ll try to update it monhtly, publishing the most recent Current Price data. I hope I’ll never have to change the Price and Date Targets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Reversal or Correction?

There’s a confluence of bearish Harmonic Pattern and a Harmonic EW count finished at 1,600.

Now the big question is whether this is the anxiously awaited top and the reversal has already started, or it is only a correction.

Hard to tell at the moment. I’m weary of calling a top especially since in order to perfect a Harmonic EW count on the higher TFs it would preferable another 5-wave move in the 4HR TF after a correction. Or if this is a regular EW count then we are done… LOL nothing’s for sure at the moment.

What seems to be a guide is the 1,575 level. It has been alternately resistance/support/resistance and it happens to be the 0.382 Fib retracement of the 5-wave upswing. If that level is broken and there’s follow through I think the chances of this being a real trend change would greatly increase. If this level holds then we might see a further 5-wave move up to the 1,620-40 area.

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SPX 05.01.2013

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Open Invitation – 4

Good news, Newbies!!!

The concept of the project is evolving and now we are planning to include traders who are relatively new to Forex. Let me explain.

The main reason to initially consider only people with 3+ years experience who already have a working trading system with expectancy close to 0.0 was to make the team fairly homogenous experience wise and with similar performance so as to make things run more smoothly from the beginning.

This is still the aim, but after further careful consideration I thought it wasn’t that fair to not give newbies at least a shot at trying social trading.

However the objective of an homogeneous trading team still remains. So we decided to create a bigger group, let’s call it for now the MMTradingGroup, with 4 teams divided by expectancy achieved.

The teams won’t be divided strictly by experience but I suspect that each team will end up being formed by people of similar experience and background.

Here’s how the teams will be formed according to Expectancy: (the names are still temporary)

BTeam -0.3 to 0.0

MMTeam 0.1 to 0.4

ADTeam 0.5 to 0.8

TNTeam +0.8

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This is the intended meaning of the acronyms: (they are subject to change)

BTeam: Baby Team. Also akin to a B-List, since the original MMTeam would be considered the A-List. It could have been named BabySteps Team, but you know how “BSTeam” would have been read in most minds LOL.

MMTeam: Still stands for Middle Men Team and Money Management Team. This is the original Trading Team Project and will still be be main purpose of this enterprise, since the expectancy range of 0.0 to 0.4 is where most of profitable traders fall into.

ADTeam: Advanced Team. I couldn’t think of a better nickname for this level and most probably it will be changed later.

TNTeam: TopNotch Team. The cream of the cream. Already got 3 members (I’m not there of course LOL) and it will be hard for anyone else to get in. And if anybody else can get in, I’ll be geniunely jealous…

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So now everybody can apply to be part of the MMTradingGroup if they wish.

The experience recommended to apply is like this (but not strictly necessary, just so you have an idea what team to apply for)

BTeam: 1-2 years (or even less, lest say 6 months)

MMTeam: 3-5 years

ADTeam: 6-8 years

TNT: +8 years

Now, here’s the downside, the teams will be smaller, at least initially, because it will still be only me to manage them all, and the logistics will be harder with 4 teams.

So initially they will be formed by only 3 people each, instead of the 12 teammates that would have formed one team. There is still the potential for each team to grow up to 12 members, but for now let’s leave it at 3 for team, that way the total is still 12.

So don’t be shy and apply soon!

Now, as we are being really flexible in this application process, the prospective teammates will have to undergo a longer evaluation process, to make sure everyone gets placed in the right team for their needs. So everybody will have to trade a demo account for 3 months to determine their real Expectancy number at present. After that period of evaluation everybody will be placed in their correct team.

Of course the teams won’t be static, and any teammate who gets their Expectancy number to the next level will be promoted to the next higher-up team.

Important Note: The current members of the TNT are excluded from the evaluation period. Those guys are already awesome and easily achieving the +0.8 Expectancy we all should be aspiring to. (yep, I’m already fortunate enough to have 3 guys in the TNTeam, which stands as TopNotch Team, or should I say “the Awesommmmeeee Team”?)

Apply for the MMTradingGroup here: https://fxaprendiz.wordpress.com/mmtgroup/

Open Invitation – 3

Here’s another post made in the Forum, related to the project of the MMT:

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Quote Originally Posted by biggari View Post
sounds like an interesting – even good – idea fortunately for you i dont qualify as iv only been trading for 2 years – besides, i’m definitely not a team player (i tend to say what i think rather than what i think others may want to hear) but good luck with the project – i hope it’s successful
Quote Originally Posted by CodyB View Post
you are more fit then most, you cannot teach or help someone that wants or needs to be right all the time, loss of ego and the ability to admit you screwed up as well as speak your mind are traits that make for a long profitable career in FX. Alas in the end trading is a lonely business, one cannot get into a “trading zone” and share at the same time, one or the other will suffer.
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Hi guys! I just want to add to the conversation and keep the ideas flowing… Actually, what I’m looking for and think is a must is strong minded, independent traders. This may seem opposite to the purpose of a Trading Team, but allow me to elaborate.

The main idea here is to have a common (demo at first) account into which each teammate will contribute with its own trades each time he enters a position in his individual acct, by using autocopy software. He will be responsible for managing his/her trades and nobody else.

The advantages of this common acct versus the individual acct will be less extreme drawdowns and a smoother equity growth curve.

Let’s say our team is still small and is only 4 traders. One of them is Biggari and on one occasion all 4 players are keeping positions on EU at the same time, with Biggari being the only one on the opposite side. His trade wins this time and of the other 3 positions two lose and one gets BE. By his trade being a winner he contributed to make the drawdown smaller. On another occasion the opposite happens, his position gets stop out at a loss and the other 3 win. The end result is positive but not as big. In this way the team balances each other and the account avoids extremes.

Two more advantages would be that there would be more positions being triggered since the account would be more actively traded over and individual account, and with a wider range of ccy pairs traded if we assemble a team with traders trading diff ccy pairs as their Main pair, giving the common acct a better chance at growing steadily.

Here’s where the independent, strong minded trader comes into play: he must not be swayed easily by the other views/positions of his teammates. In a certain way, he’ll be competing against them, but in a positive way. At the end all will benefit.

On the other hand if we get a team of “Yes, Sir!!” people, then nothing of this will happen, we will only have a group of sheeps waiting for a leader to emerge, and copy-paste his/her trade most of the time, akin to a signal-provider system. In that case all the supposed benefits of the shared system will we nullified and actually the acct will do worse, with bigger drawdowns due to taking a bigger common risk most of the time.

Of course there will still be cooperation, but it will be on the manner of shared information and viewpoints, before the teammate starts trading.

When a teammate wakes up and turns on his computer, there will be waiting for him an assorted group of reports of his teammates of the previous trading session. What they saw, traded and what they expect for the next session. If they are still around (in real-time chat room or IM) and he wants to interact with them a little before entering his “trading zone” the he’ll do so. If not he can simply read the reports to get an idea of what happened while he was sleeping.

Now, CodyB is right that trading and sharing can not coexist easily, and he’s 100% right. That’s why we’ll try to automate the process as much as possible.

The trades will be recorded automatically and notifications sent also automatically. There is still tedious but necessary manual work the teammates will have to do, which is journaling the session and their trades. This is still hard work but we are supposed to do it anyway, the trade plan, the managing of the position and the post-trade report. It’s what most of us don’t do and one of the reasons we keep failing at this.

I can’t go into details about the platforms and tools for these tasks here because I might infringe into the rules of the forum. But there will be lots of them: one for planning and journaling, one for the common acct trading and yet another one for trade analysis. That with respect to the trading aspect. We will stayed communicated by real-time sharing tools, but we’ll use them only when necessary, so we don’t distract unnecessarily our fellow traders.

The project is still in diapers so this is only a vague blueprint, but you got the idea: the more independent minded the trader the better. Think of it as something akin as a Mutual Fund, which purpose is to diversify the assets (in this case ccy pairs and trading systems) so as to get a smoother (and safer) equity growth curve.

I’ll keep in touch, good nigth now.

Apply for the MMT here: https://fxaprendiz.wordpress.com/mmtgroup/

Open Invitation – 2

As mentioned in previous post, I had already wrote a sort of invitation in the DailyFX forum. Here it is for later reference:

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Well, it’s the end of the trading week… and it seems like everybody’s gone. 4 hours have passed since last post.

As somebody (nikolas?) said, it might be because of the choppines of this current market, it was tough to trade this week indeed.

Fortunately imho the volatility is soon to be with us again. I’m just trying to keep my gunpowder dry for the big rides ahead. Hint: when you see SPX500 hitting 1,600 it’s time for everything to start reversing…

On another note, I have finally taken the decision to abandon the pretense of becoming Kirito (the main character on Sword Art Online… man, this Japanese anime made my trading week easier… highly recommended even to adult, non-anime fans) which is the aloof, cool solo-player of the story, and I’m willing to settle with becoming Klein, the average guy that only survives the game (because in this story, the players are trapped in the game and actually DIE in real life if they die in the virtual world…) by assembling a ragtag team of equally average-looking game-friends that battle monsters and more powerful guilds.

So, I’ll try to survive this “game” of Forex on the long run by assembling my own small team of “FX survivors” and we’ll create a “virtual world of Forex” to battle out the big FX Guilds (Banks?…) and clear the game.

Game ON!!!

LOL don’t mind me… it’s been a long week indeed and I’m delusional, sleep deprived and starving… not a healthy combination nor conducive to clear thoughts…

Now, more seriously, I indeed have started the process of creating a virtual trading room. I have been at it for only 3 days and it will take some time to see something concrete, but if any of you is interested, let me know by going to the MMTeam page I opened in my WordPress blog.

Again, mods, I’m not trying to “steal” anybody from DailyFX Forum. This place is great and it fulfills its purpose. The Virtual Trading Room I have in mind serves another purpose, that of more real-time, collaborative work and support.

Now, for a light laugh, the initial name for the group was ” Flat Men ” LOL not because I have in mind to accept only skinny asian guys, or flat-feet people, but because I’m intending to form this Team mostly with guys (gals too! I wish my own Asuna in the game 😛 ) that week after week, month after month end up mostly Flat on their account. This Team will be made (I hope) of talented but other-wise unccessful traders that are missing something that will take them from negative Expectancy to positive Exp. So, to not make the title as laughable, I changed it to “Middle Men” Team or MMT for short 😛 which is still laughable depending how you look at it… With this title I want to stress that the project is to take traders “in the middle”, not real losers neither succesful pros, and together pull us up and out of the red numbers. Also, MM will be code-name for Money Management, which will be the “secret weapon” that we’ll yield to win over the Great Guilds.

OK, so just to be clear from the start. No guys blowing their accounts every 3 months, no Pros making millions already, and (sorry) no complete newbies either.

The profile I’m looking for is someone who has been around FX for at least 3 years, that knows all the basics already, that has blown out 2, 3 or more demo AND real accounts, that knows the pain of it, but that has worked hard and is now pretty much breaking even all the time. That has a working system that prevents him from blowing out any more accounts, but not good enough to give him profits. Or someone that has a fantastic trading system but lacks the knowledge/discipline of a good Money Management system. Ot someone that has all these positive atributes but just can’t make it alone for one reason or another.

What’s the idea of the project? Hard to  delineate clearly something is still in the works, but the highlights are this: a small team (ideally 12) of dedicated, competent individuals that support each other and while ferociously independent on their trade ideas, willing to share them with the group in real time, by any mean possible (IM, Tweets, Real-Time Chat and Persistent Group Chat, Screen-Sharing.. and more) with our combined force to be 24/5 monitoring the market and looking for the best trading opportunities, and at the very least avoiding the worst/blowing-account trades and discipline one another and police our MM to establish a firm ground-battle (again with the SAO references.. I am lost in it)

This will be a long-term project, that will take in the best of cases 12 months to show results, or even 2 years if we don’t clear our Expectancy numbers quick enough. If necessary, we will have to let people go if they are found dragging the rest. (there will be clear mathematical rules about this, not decisions based on personality or the likes) but hopefully that won’t be the case. There will be evaluations every 3 months for that purpose, with full statistics and reports.

At the end of the day, the goal is to have 3 sub-teams of 4 people monitoring each session (Tokyo-London-NY) while the other sub-teams finally rest, and making trades in both consensus and individual mode. Ultimately, a Trading Portfolio will be pooled from all us, which should avoid the extremes of deep drawdowns and long losing streaks, while incrementing profits on the long run.

Well, now I have see written all this ideas, they seem more like a mad-man dream than a workable project… LOL

In any event, this time I’m going to try it and work hard at it. The end results will depend on 13 strong-minded individuals willing to bend their minds a little and collaborate in order to survive…  Yeh Forex “gods” (bankters) hear me??!!! I’m going to survive this GamEEEeee!!! (LOL again going back to SAO…. ups I forgot I’m now Klein trying to assemble his ragtag band LOL)

Remember, if interested to apply for the MMTeam, the link is this: https://fxaprendiz.wordpress.com/mmtgroup/

Open Invitation – 1

If some of you dear readers have been following me from the start, you know at some point I tried to assemble a group of people to study Harmonic Patterns and Fibonacci numbers to trade Forex.

The answer was overwhelming back then, with many people answering and reaching out to be part of the project. Unfortunately I freaked out (my mostly lonely nature I guess) and balked at the responsibility of owning to my words.

This time it’s different ( I think… )

I have grown up as a trader a little bit more. I’m more cautious and don’t think I can make it alone anymore. If you’re on the same situation I invite you to consider being part of the second iteration of project “let’s kick the banksters asses”.

Only this time it won’t be about Fibonacci ratios per se, neither it will be about sharing knowledge.

It will be more practical: trying to assemble people who already know their stuff and have a workable system that at least got them to make even at the end of the month. So the idea is to collaborate in sharing information, actionable trading ideas in real-time. This is a whole different animal and no easy task.

More especifically, I’m thinking of a Virtual Trading Room.

Everything is still on the inital phases so it won’t be opened tomorrow, but the idea is to start somewhere. I already have spent 3 days researching for the best internet technology to achieve this. Not easy task considering everything has to be FREE at least for the first few months.

I’ll keep you updated as progressed is made, but in the meantime it would be encouraging to see how many people might be interested this time.

I know I won’t get the overwhelming response I got the first time I tried it. Back then I was very active in the Forums and people knew me very well… then I went back to my hermit personality and only now I’m starting to re-emerge.

I’m still a hermit, allright, but a hermit that has finally recognized (rather accepted) that he won’t make in Forex alone. The statistics confirm this:

We all know the numbers: less than 5% of Forex traders are successful in the long run.

If we check the numbers the brokers give us the case is not actually so disheartening: depending which broker you research, loser traders are “only” about 70-75% or their client base. I don’t want to contest those numbers… after all they are audited, I think. But they don’t reflect reality faithfully. Of the 25-30% of people that is not losing, a great percentage is pretty much just running flat, and at some point or another re-join the band of losers. And I bet the small percentage of winners is more “permanent”, they are winning after all. so they stay in the business, so they are mostly the same every month; while the losing population is constituted of a revolving door of people entering and leaving, so in a whole year I bet the numbers pretty much go back to the more realistic 95%losers-5%winners ratio if we count everybody.

The solution: become a Super-Trader, as Melbgirl once famously said (well not the exact words but that was the idea she printed on me) and be virtually indestructible, (like Kirito from SAO, google it, I won’t make this post longer than it will already be). Or huddle together and help each other to at least not blow out our accounts so easily.

The second option seems more feasible (at least on paper) and with that in mind I have always been around the fx forums. But to dispair the opposite result often was achieved: more confusion, trade-paralysis and frustration. Some of my FX friends that have left the forums know what I’m talking about perfectly.

Now, I’m starting to think the problem don’t lie on the Forums per se. They are essentially good and serve their purpose, especially with good moderators. DailyFX is prime example: from a total disaster a couple years back it has turned 180 degrees to be an excelent place for information sharing (thanks to their current mods, Greg and Alex).

However, I think they are limited to their current role as recipient of static FX knowledge. They are also, up to a certain point, good at current FX information but in delayed time, which in Forex is just not good enough.

The other issue I have always observed is the enormous (really, enormous) variety of FX traders (personalities, systems, TF, styles, MM rules or no rules at all) that confluence there. IMHO that’s exactly why forums just can’t deliver concrete results regarding real-time trading.

Solution:

To combat the delay in information, use all means necessary to make that information Actual, concrete and to the point: Enter IM, Persistent Chat rooms, Screen Sharing, Online Meetings, Tweeting. In fewer words: a Virtual Trading Room.

To combat the innecessary variety of traders, assemble a more homogeneous group of people, create the same background on the foundations of FX (Risk Mgmt. and Money Mgmt.) and a shared discipline to stick to them, and if possible, on the TimeFrames of trades, while allowing independence of toughts and trading strategies. Again, in fewer words: a Trading Team.

The idea is not new of course and I’m not re-inventing the wheel. But only recently technology has catched up with the concept. Well, still not in the format desired: I have yet to find the IDEAL virtual trading room for the Team. But so far my search has had partial success… it seems the best we can settle for is to use a mix of internet mediums to form the Virtual room. It will be indeed virtual…LOL no specific location even in the internet…

Will this be the solution?

We’ll I can’t guarantee it but I think it’s at least worth a shot: According to some sources, using what is called Social Networks Trading increments the success rates up to a 50% of traders involve in it. Again, I think the reason is because of their more dynamic nature.

Although searching for concrete examples, the myFXbook site has in its numbers that only 40% of its members are profitable. Not the 50% advertised elsewhere, but definitely a great improvement from 5% (or 25-30% if you believe the brokers).

I think these Social Network Trading sites still fall short because they only deal with half of the problem. They solve the need for the Virtual Trading Room, mostly. But they don’t deal with the problem of the heterogeneity of the FX world. For that we still need to create/assemble our own, small team of traders.

If solving only half of the problem yields 40% profitable traders already, solving the other half should bring that number over to the other side…

OK, I think you have the idea now that this time I’m serious and I’m not walking away from this second project.

I have already placed a fill-out form in the newly created MMTeam page in this blog. If you think you can trust me I’m serious this time and you think you can deal with my ambivalent personality, fill it out and we’ll start contact. As mentioned, it will probably be a slow beginning, but I already started to work on it and will dedicate most of my time to this project to see it come to reality.

I’ll keep writing in coming days to fill you in the details as they come available.

For now I’m finishing this post.

P.S. I wrote a briefer (I think lol) invitation in the FXDaily Forum a couple hours ago. I’ll repost it right after this post. Some thoughts are the same but other ideas add to what I have said here.