If some of you dear readers have been following me from the start, you know at some point I tried to assemble a group of people to study Harmonic Patterns and Fibonacci numbers to trade Forex.
The answer was overwhelming back then, with many people answering and reaching out to be part of the project. Unfortunately I freaked out (my mostly lonely nature I guess) and balked at the responsibility of owning to my words.
This time it’s different ( I think… )
I have grown up as a trader a little bit more. I’m more cautious and don’t think I can make it alone anymore. If you’re on the same situation I invite you to consider being part of the second iteration of project “let’s kick the banksters asses”.
Only this time it won’t be about Fibonacci ratios per se, neither it will be about sharing knowledge.
It will be more practical: trying to assemble people who already know their stuff and have a workable system that at least got them to make even at the end of the month. So the idea is to collaborate in sharing information, actionable trading ideas in real-time. This is a whole different animal and no easy task.
More especifically, I’m thinking of a Virtual Trading Room.
Everything is still on the inital phases so it won’t be opened tomorrow, but the idea is to start somewhere. I already have spent 3 days researching for the best internet technology to achieve this. Not easy task considering everything has to be FREE at least for the first few months.
I’ll keep you updated as progressed is made, but in the meantime it would be encouraging to see how many people might be interested this time.
I know I won’t get the overwhelming response I got the first time I tried it. Back then I was very active in the Forums and people knew me very well… then I went back to my hermit personality and only now I’m starting to re-emerge.
I’m still a hermit, allright, but a hermit that has finally recognized (rather accepted) that he won’t make in Forex alone. The statistics confirm this:
We all know the numbers: less than 5% of Forex traders are successful in the long run.
If we check the numbers the brokers give us the case is not actually so disheartening: depending which broker you research, loser traders are “only” about 70-75% or their client base. I don’t want to contest those numbers… after all they are audited, I think. But they don’t reflect reality faithfully. Of the 25-30% of people that is not losing, a great percentage is pretty much just running flat, and at some point or another re-join the band of losers. And I bet the small percentage of winners is more “permanent”, they are winning after all. so they stay in the business, so they are mostly the same every month; while the losing population is constituted of a revolving door of people entering and leaving, so in a whole year I bet the numbers pretty much go back to the more realistic 95%losers-5%winners ratio if we count everybody.
The solution: become a Super-Trader, as Melbgirl once famously said (well not the exact words but that was the idea she printed on me) and be virtually indestructible, (like Kirito from SAO, google it, I won’t make this post longer than it will already be). Or huddle together and help each other to at least not blow out our accounts so easily.
The second option seems more feasible (at least on paper) and with that in mind I have always been around the fx forums. But to dispair the opposite result often was achieved: more confusion, trade-paralysis and frustration. Some of my FX friends that have left the forums know what I’m talking about perfectly.
Now, I’m starting to think the problem don’t lie on the Forums per se. They are essentially good and serve their purpose, especially with good moderators. DailyFX is prime example: from a total disaster a couple years back it has turned 180 degrees to be an excelent place for information sharing (thanks to their current mods, Greg and Alex).
However, I think they are limited to their current role as recipient of static FX knowledge. They are also, up to a certain point, good at current FX information but in delayed time, which in Forex is just not good enough.
The other issue I have always observed is the enormous (really, enormous) variety of FX traders (personalities, systems, TF, styles, MM rules or no rules at all) that confluence there. IMHO that’s exactly why forums just can’t deliver concrete results regarding real-time trading.
To combat the delay in information, use all means necessary to make that information Actual, concrete and to the point: Enter IM, Persistent Chat rooms, Screen Sharing, Online Meetings, Tweeting. In fewer words: a Virtual Trading Room.
To combat the innecessary variety of traders, assemble a more homogeneous group of people, create the same background on the foundations of FX (Risk Mgmt. and Money Mgmt.) and a shared discipline to stick to them, and if possible, on the TimeFrames of trades, while allowing independence of toughts and trading strategies. Again, in fewer words: a Trading Team.
The idea is not new of course and I’m not re-inventing the wheel. But only recently technology has catched up with the concept. Well, still not in the format desired: I have yet to find the IDEAL virtual trading room for the Team. But so far my search has had partial success… it seems the best we can settle for is to use a mix of internet mediums to form the Virtual room. It will be indeed virtual…LOL no specific location even in the internet…
Will this be the solution?
We’ll I can’t guarantee it but I think it’s at least worth a shot: According to some sources, using what is called Social Networks Trading increments the success rates up to a 50% of traders involve in it. Again, I think the reason is because of their more dynamic nature.
Although searching for concrete examples, the myFXbook site has in its numbers that only 40% of its members are profitable. Not the 50% advertised elsewhere, but definitely a great improvement from 5% (or 25-30% if you believe the brokers).
I think these Social Network Trading sites still fall short because they only deal with half of the problem. They solve the need for the Virtual Trading Room, mostly. But they don’t deal with the problem of the heterogeneity of the FX world. For that we still need to create/assemble our own, small team of traders.
If solving only half of the problem yields 40% profitable traders already, solving the other half should bring that number over to the other side…
OK, I think you have the idea now that this time I’m serious and I’m not walking away from this second project.
I have already placed a fill-out form in the newly created MMTeam page in this blog. If you think you can trust me I’m serious this time and you think you can deal with my ambivalent personality, fill it out and we’ll start contact. As mentioned, it will probably be a slow beginning, but I already started to work on it and will dedicate most of my time to this project to see it come to reality.
I’ll keep writing in coming days to fill you in the details as they come available.
For now I’m finishing this post.
P.S. I wrote a briefer (I think lol) invitation in the FXDaily Forum a couple hours ago. I’ll repost it right after this post. Some thoughts are the same but other ideas add to what I have said here.