"always an apprentice"

Reversal or Correction?

There’s a confluence of bearish Harmonic Pattern and a Harmonic EW count finished at 1,600.

Now the big question is whether this is the anxiously awaited top and the reversal has already started, or it is only a correction.

Hard to tell at the moment. I’m weary of calling a top especially since in order to perfect a Harmonic EW count on the higher TFs it would preferable another 5-wave move in the 4HR TF after a correction. Or if this is a regular EW count then we are done… LOL nothing’s for sure at the moment.

What seems to be a guide is the 1,575 level. It has been alternately resistance/support/resistance and it happens to be the 0.382 Fib retracement of the 5-wave upswing. If that level is broken and there’s follow through I think the chances of this being a real trend change would greatly increase. If this level holds then we might see a further 5-wave move up to the 1,620-40 area.

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SPX 05.01.2013

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